The drumbeat begins …


Of course, it’s been drumming all along in my head and heart but I thought I’d start an occasional analysis of the presidential race here on my ickle blog.

Can’t do much better than Jib Jab’s latest, of course.

But, for anyone as obsessive as I am, here are two must-bookmark sites: Pollster.com and Zogby’s electoral map.

Zogby has been very good in recent cycles and his map has Obama with 273 electoral votes right now, and that’s not even giving him Michigan or Ohio, where he’s currently running ahead.

Also when you look at the Pollster.com date, look especially at the surveys that poll LV (likely voters) rather than RV (registered voters). LV polls are more accurate. For example, if you look at Florida, in the polls that surveyed LVs, Obama is consistently ahead in the last few weeks. Even better are the campaign internal polls, which draw from actual voter lists, but they are rarely made public.

Also I like (especially because I’m a strong D) the national four-way chart. Since that measures the actual match-ups, I think it’s more accurate.

Disclosure: I’m not totally talking as an amateur poll-watcher here. I did political polling for six years and worked briefly at one of the top Democratic polling firms.

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